In Europe's heating transition, heat pump policy has been the primary driver, with EU-level regulations setting both direction and pace.
Over the past few years, building regulations have tightened, refrigerant rules have become stricter, and carbon pricing has moved from proposal to fixed date. The specifics differ by country, but the aim is consistent across the board: higher building performance, less reliance on fossil fuels, and an accelerated shift toward electrified heating.
The key EU-level policies shaping the transition include:
- REPowerEU accelerating the shift toward renewable heating
- Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) setting higher performance requirements for new buildings and renovations
- F-gas regulation phasing out refrigerants with high Global Warming Potential (GWP), affecting product design and refrigerant strategy
- Ecodesign Directive and Energy Labelling setting requirements on efficiency and seasonal performance
- ETS2 defining carbon pricing for fuels, reshaping the operating economics of fossil-based systems
These policies are now going beyond setting rules to enforce implementation timelines. Several deadlines are stacked over the next four years – compounding pressure on manufacturers to commit to product and platform decisions.
Visual of the milestones in the road ahead from 2026 to 2030
Energy security measures are already taking effect, with EU bans on long-term Russian gas contracts removing the buffer that kept fossil heating competitive in Central and Eastern Europe. Carbon pricing under ETS2 applies to building heating fuels from 2028. Energy security measures are already taking effect, with EU bans on long-term Russian gas contracts removing the buffer that kept fossil heating competitive in Central and Eastern Europe. Carbon pricing under ETS2 applies to building heating fuels from 2028.
EU F-gas regulations are progressively closing the market for high-GWP systems, starting in January 2027 with a GWP limit of 150 for monoblocks and self-contained units in the ≤12 kW segment. By 2032, F-gas refrigerants will no longer be permitted in new monoblock units under 12 kW, with split systems following in 2035. Emerging PFAS restrictions may accelerate this further.
And while timelines may vary by country, the direction toward a gas boiler ban is set with 2040 as the indicative year for an EU-wide fossil boiler phase-out.
Made in Europe: an emerging layer
Beyond product compliance, market access and subsidy eligibility criteria are also shifting. The European Commission's proposed Industrial Accelerator Act would require hydronic heat pumps to be assembled within the EU to qualify for public procurement and subsidies. Where a system is built is likely to become part of the regulatory landscape.
Sources:
- https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-performance-buildings/energy-performance-buildings-directive_en
- https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-performance-buildings/nearly-zero-energyand-zero-emission-buildings_en
- https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/emissions-reductions-from-buildings-in-europe-how-the-ets2-will-help-this-sector-meet-its-climate-targets
- https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20251211IPR32169/eu-to-phase-out-imports-ofrussian-gas