Cost is considered one of the primary barriers to heat pump adoption. And when we say cost, it is not only the upfront investment but also the recurring heat pump running costs. Government subsidies and policies often help manage heat pump installation costs, so the discussion tends to settle on what it costs to run the heat pumps and the price gap between electricity and gas. In some European markets, the idea of cheap gas is hard to bypass.
However, the crisis in the Middle East has shaken that market perception. Since the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has accelerated the shift toward electrified heating while also diversifying its gas supply. Yet, the current conflict has brought rising gas prices back into focus and once again highlighted how vulnerable natural gas supply and gas prices remain to geopolitical disruptions.
So where does this leave the heat pump vs gas boiler running cost comparison?
A common measure for assessing heat pump costs against gas boilers is the electricity-to-gas price ratio, known in the industry as the spark gap.
A high spark gap is often treated as the main reason why heat pumps are not scaling as expected. However, that can be misleading. Recent market data shows that the spark gap should be considered as one variable, instead of a fixed deterrent.
Let us take the example of the UK and Germany, two markets with similar spark gaps. In 2024, UK heat pump sales grew by 56% while sales in Germany fell by 48%. In 2025, Germany rebounded with heat pumps making up almost 50% of all heating systems sold and the UK continued its growth trajectory.
The spark gap can be managed with the right question
The traditional framing asks: how much more expensive is electricity than gas? But as Europe gradually shifts from fixed-price to variable-price electricity, a different question becomes more relevant: what does it cost to run a heat pump during off-peak hours?
Heat pump running costs is becoming manageable with system design. Smart controls allow systems to respond to dynamic electricity tariffs and shift load to off-peak hours, reducing heat pump electricity cost substantially. Studies indicate that this combination of smart scheduling and grid-responsive operation can deliver meaningful heat pump savings over a system's lifetime.
And critically, while Europe still relies on imported gas and oil, its electricity is increasingly produced domestically, with renewables now providing a growing share of the power mix. Heat pumps tap into a supply that is less exposed to the shocks that keep hitting fossil fuels. The heat pump payback period was already considered competitive in many markets. And now the emerging volatility of gas prices makes the business case significantly stronger, placing even greater value on long-term stability.
We take a deeper look at how operating economics, policy signals, and real-world performance are shaping heat pump adoption across Europe's diverging markets in our latest whitepaper.