Around 28 million heat pumps are now installed across Europe, with 12 out of 16 countries showing growth in 2025. With over 10% increase in heat pump sales and nearly 7% decrease in fossil fuel boiler sales, the headline numbers speak for themselves: Europe’s heat pump market is on the road to recovery after the highs and lows of recent years.
At first glance, heat pump adoption across the continent looks like one large, unified opportunity. To align with the broader ambition of reaching around 60 million units by 2030, roughly 6 million would need to be installed annually. The rebound numbers suggest the market is ready. But the path to execution is anything but straightforward when you take a closer look at the data.
Heat pump sales by country show different trajectories
In contrast, France saw sales decline amid budget instability and shifting support schemes. Poland also saw a decline with industry observers citing disinformation about heat pump technology. This demonstrates that where policy was unstable or market confidence was undermined, adoption stalled.
Europe is not a single heat pump market
From a distance, Europe might look like one big market. But on the ground, it is a patchwork of national markets, each shaped by distinct policy choices, building stock, and installer ecosystems.
Long-term data on heat pump adoption by country confirms the pattern with installation stock per 1,000 households ranging from fewer than 100 units to well above 500. This disparity reflects varied levels of market maturity, and the distinct heat pump adoption challenges countries face in managing their transition to low-carbon heating.
The implication is clear: there is no single Europe heat pump market, but many national markets. We explore how these country differences shape growth, and what it takes to scale successfully across this fragmented market, in our latest whitepaper.
Broader European heat pump market trends and EU-level policies may point in one direction, but country-level variation still determines what can actually be sold, installed, and scaled with consistency.
Capturing Europe’s heat pump market share requires more than strong technology as a strategy that succeeds in one market but may underperform in another. Scaling in Europe is largely dependent on the ability to adapt to local realities, aligning with national subsidy criteria, accommodating regional building characteristics, and working with installer networks that understand local conditions.